{"from": "2026-07-18T04:15:00+00:00", "to": "2026-10-16T04:15:00+00:00", "lead_min": 14, "target": "systeemonbalans (MW) en onbalansprijs (EUR/MWh) per kwartier", "elia_si": {"n": 8531, "validated_share": 0.986, "point": {"mae_mw": 92.83, "rmse_mw": 123.24, "bias_mw": 10.67, "persistence": {"n": 8531, "mae_mw": 108.11, "rmse_mw": 144.6, "skill_mae": 0.1413, "skill_mse": 0.2736, "dm_abs": {"stat": -19.807, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -15.2762, "n": 8531, "hac_lag": 20}, "dm_sq": {"stat": -17.93, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -5720.0325, "n": 8531, "hac_lag": 20}}}, "classes": {"n": 8531, "rps": 0.0695, "rps_climatology": 0.10282, "rpss": 0.324, "log_score": 1.0465, "log_score_climatology": 1.3735, "log_skill": 0.238, "climatology": [0.0162, 0.1124, 0.3847, 0.3491, 0.1197, 0.0179]}, "direction": {"brier": 0.15782, "reliability": 0.00395, "resolution": 0.09538, "uncertainty": 0.24982, "base_rate": 0.5133, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 1475, "forecast": 0.037, "observed": 0.066}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 775, "forecast": 0.147, "observed": 0.196}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 742, "forecast": 0.25, "observed": 0.296}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 812, "forecast": 0.351, "observed": 0.384}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 905, "forecast": 0.449, "observed": 0.539}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 826, "forecast": 0.549, "observed": 0.65}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 762, "forecast": 0.648, "observed": 0.748}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 631, "forecast": 0.751, "observed": 0.832}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 587, "forecast": 0.848, "observed": 0.876}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 1016, "forecast": 0.959, "observed": 0.949}], "brier_skill": 0.3683, "hint": {"p_up": 0.7, "p_down": 0.3, "coverage": 0.613, "hit_rate": 0.866, "n_calls": 5229}, "sign_hit_rate_point": 0.771}}, "traxes_ipf": {"n": 0}, "prices": {"models": {"eigen": {"n": 8638, "backtest_share": 0.951, "mae": 23.34, "pinball": 7.48, "interval_score": 125.38, "coverage": 0.791, "mean_width": 73.65, "skill_mae_vs_persistentie": 0.1219, "dm_vs_persistentie": {"stat": -11.228, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -3.2394, "n": 8638, "hac_lag": 20}}, "persistentie": {"n": 8640, "mae": 26.64}}, "decision_vs_da": {"eigen": {"n": 8635, "hit_rate": 0.824, "value_eur_mwh": 34.8, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.19, "capture": 0.845, "brier": 0.123}, "traxes": {"n": 0}, "elia": {"n": 8610, "hit_rate": 0.697, "value_eur_mwh": 25.05, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.16, "capture": 0.609, "brier": 0.2184}, "persistentie": {"n": 8637, "hit_rate": 0.814, "value_eur_mwh": 33.96, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.18, "capture": 0.825, "brier": null}}, "reliability_eigen": {"brier": 0.12302, "reliability": 0.00053, "resolution": 0.12551, "uncertainty": 0.24851, "base_rate": 0.4614, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 2212, "forecast": 0.041, "observed": 0.036}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 736, "forecast": 0.149, "observed": 0.155}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 699, "forecast": 0.243, "observed": 0.222}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 520, "forecast": 0.351, "observed": 0.335}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 615, "forecast": 0.449, "observed": 0.491}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 632, "forecast": 0.549, "observed": 0.595}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 537, "forecast": 0.65, "observed": 0.691}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 567, "forecast": 0.755, "observed": 0.788}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 588, "forecast": 0.848, "observed": 0.857}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 1529, "forecast": 0.959, "observed": 0.956}]}, "decision_common": {"n": 8612, "eigen": {"n": 8609, "hit_rate": 0.825, "value_eur_mwh": 34.79, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.16, "capture": 0.845, "brier": 0.1227}, "elia": {"n": 8609, "hit_rate": 0.697, "value_eur_mwh": 25.06, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.16, "capture": 0.609, "brier": 0.2184}, "persistentie": {"n": 8609, "hit_rate": 0.814, "value_eur_mwh": 33.97, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.16, "capture": 0.825, "brier": null}}}, "notes": ["skill = 1 - score/baseline; > 0 = beter dan de baseline", "DM-test: stat < 0 = Elia beter dan persistentie; p < 0,05 = significant", "persistentie bij lead 1 min gebruikt het kwartier dat dan 14/15 bekend is (strenge baseline); klimatologie is in-sample", "eigen model: voor de live start zijn het walk-forward backtestvoorspellingen (maandelijks hertraind, nooit op toekomstige data)", "waarde vs DA: gem. teken*(onbalans-DA) per kwartier voor 1 MWh flex; capture = fractie van wat perfecte kennis oplevert"], "daily": [{"day": "2026-07-18", "n": 79, "mae_mw": 99.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 120.2, "brier": 0.1627, "rps": 0.0643, "own_mae": 28.6, "persist_price_mae": 33.6}, {"day": "2026-07-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 96.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 121.4, "brier": 0.1765, "rps": 0.0666, "own_mae": 17.4, "persist_price_mae": 22.5}, {"day": "2026-07-20", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 90.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 110.7, "brier": 0.1079, "rps": 0.0597, "own_mae": 19.3, "persist_price_mae": 20.4}, {"day": "2026-07-21", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 80.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 107.6, "brier": 0.1621, "rps": 0.0647, "own_mae": 18.9, "persist_price_mae": 24.0}, {"day": "2026-07-22", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 98.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 133.8, "brier": 0.1446, "rps": 0.0667, "own_mae": 21.7, "persist_price_mae": 26.5}, {"day": "2026-07-23", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 97.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 118.9, "brier": 0.2236, "rps": 0.0798, "own_mae": 21.3, "persist_price_mae": 29.0}, {"day": "2026-07-24", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 67.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 75.7, "brier": 0.1844, "rps": 0.0596, "own_mae": 11.1, "persist_price_mae": 13.9}, {"day": "2026-07-25", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 98.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 128.0, "brier": 0.1676, "rps": 0.0717, "own_mae": 16.7, "persist_price_mae": 18.7}, {"day": "2026-07-26", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 120.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 140.8, "brier": 0.181, "rps": 0.0958, "own_mae": 17.6, "persist_price_mae": 22.2}, {"day": "2026-07-27", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 83.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 101.0, "brier": 0.1717, "rps": 0.0644, "own_mae": 17.5, "persist_price_mae": 21.2}, {"day": "2026-07-28", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 83.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 97.1, "brier": 0.1603, "rps": 0.0646, "own_mae": 28.4, "persist_price_mae": 37.0}, {"day": "2026-07-29", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 95.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 112.6, "brier": 0.1355, "rps": 0.0697, "own_mae": 17.7, "persist_price_mae": 19.5}, {"day": "2026-07-30", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 87.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 99.8, "brier": 0.149, "rps": 0.0668, "own_mae": 24.7, "persist_price_mae": 27.1}, {"day": "2026-07-31", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 72.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.6, "brier": 0.1266, "rps": 0.0541, "own_mae": 12.3, "persist_price_mae": 13.0}, {"day": "2026-08-01", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 93.9, "brier": 0.2014, "rps": 0.0583, "own_mae": 11.1, "persist_price_mae": 11.4}, {"day": "2026-08-02", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 75.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 84.0, "brier": 0.1336, "rps": 0.0523, "own_mae": 17.0, "persist_price_mae": 19.1}, {"day": "2026-08-03", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 97.1, "brier": 0.1723, "rps": 0.0648, "own_mae": 23.9, "persist_price_mae": 27.4}, {"day": "2026-08-04", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 105.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 122.0, "brier": 0.2147, "rps": 0.0846, "own_mae": 28.5, "persist_price_mae": 34.3}, {"day": "2026-08-05", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 79.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 103.4, "brier": 0.1801, "rps": 0.0654, "own_mae": 24.7, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2026-08-06", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 75.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 96.0, "brier": 0.1502, "rps": 0.0564, "own_mae": 14.8, "persist_price_mae": 19.2}, {"day": "2026-08-07", "n": 90, "mae_mw": 60.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 73.2, "brier": 0.1648, "rps": 0.0493, "own_mae": 23.3, "persist_price_mae": 26.4}, {"day": "2026-08-08", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 63.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 80.4, "brier": 0.1604, "rps": 0.0545, "own_mae": 11.9, "persist_price_mae": 16.8}, {"day": "2026-08-09", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 103.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 121.7, "brier": 0.1509, "rps": 0.0746, "own_mae": 17.8, "persist_price_mae": 20.1}, {"day": "2026-08-10", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 89.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 112.6, "brier": 0.1435, "rps": 0.0677, "own_mae": 18.6, "persist_price_mae": 20.5}, {"day": "2026-08-11", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 70.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.5, "brier": 0.1507, "rps": 0.0553, "own_mae": 13.8, "persist_price_mae": 15.7}, {"day": "2026-08-12", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 72.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 83.9, "brier": 0.2133, "rps": 0.0634, "own_mae": 17.7, "persist_price_mae": 18.1}, {"day": "2026-08-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 87.6, "brier": 0.2388, "rps": 0.055, "own_mae": 13.4, "persist_price_mae": 16.3}, {"day": "2026-08-14", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 77.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 98.6, "brier": 0.1598, "rps": 0.0603, "own_mae": 19.1, "persist_price_mae": 22.4}, {"day": "2026-08-15", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 90.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 103.8, "brier": 0.1685, "rps": 0.064, "own_mae": 75.7, "persist_price_mae": 81.9}, {"day": "2026-08-16", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 111.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 127.4, "brier": 0.0708, "rps": 0.0776, "own_mae": 16.2, "persist_price_mae": 18.4}, {"day": "2026-08-17", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 89.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 105.2, "brier": 0.1513, "rps": 0.0714, "own_mae": 16.7, "persist_price_mae": 19.8}, {"day": "2026-08-18", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 98.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 114.4, "brier": 0.1343, "rps": 0.0709, "own_mae": 62.0, "persist_price_mae": 58.5}, {"day": "2026-08-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 111.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 123.4, "brier": 0.1175, "rps": 0.0817, "own_mae": 20.0, "persist_price_mae": 21.2}, {"day": "2026-08-20", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 134.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 164.6, "brier": 0.1403, "rps": 0.0919, "own_mae": 23.9, "persist_price_mae": 29.2}, {"day": "2026-08-21", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 89.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 108.6, "brier": 0.1739, "rps": 0.0661, "own_mae": 15.7, "persist_price_mae": 16.9}, {"day": "2026-08-22", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 97.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 99.1, "brier": 0.1205, "rps": 0.0732, "own_mae": 41.4, "persist_price_mae": 40.5}, {"day": "2026-08-23", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 74.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 83.5, "brier": 0.155, "rps": 0.0528, "own_mae": 21.3, "persist_price_mae": 25.6}, {"day": "2026-08-24", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 104.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 111.1, "brier": 0.1445, "rps": 0.0766, "own_mae": 12.0, "persist_price_mae": 14.3}, {"day": "2026-08-25", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 105.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 120.0, "brier": 0.0968, "rps": 0.0791, "own_mae": 23.7, "persist_price_mae": 28.1}, {"day": "2026-08-26", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 107.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 130.1, "brier": 0.1552, "rps": 0.076, "own_mae": 24.5, "persist_price_mae": 24.3}, {"day": "2026-08-27", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 117.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 123.7, "brier": 0.1764, "rps": 0.091, "own_mae": 33.2, "persist_price_mae": 36.7}, {"day": "2026-08-28", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 127.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 128.3, "brier": 0.1514, "rps": 0.095, "own_mae": 55.1, "persist_price_mae": 51.2}, {"day": "2026-08-29", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 78.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 111.7, "brier": 0.1557, "rps": 0.062, "own_mae": 18.6, "persist_price_mae": 22.2}, {"day": "2026-08-30", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 141.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 159.2, "brier": 0.1326, "rps": 0.0901, "own_mae": 21.2, "persist_price_mae": 24.5}, {"day": "2026-08-31", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 118.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 131.7, "brier": 0.1708, "rps": 0.0865, "own_mae": 18.1, "persist_price_mae": 22.8}, {"day": "2026-09-01", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 95.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 105.7, "brier": 0.1673, "rps": 0.0718, "own_mae": 18.8, "persist_price_mae": 19.3}, {"day": "2026-09-02", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 116.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 127.3, "brier": 0.1313, "rps": 0.0864, "own_mae": 23.6, "persist_price_mae": 25.1}, {"day": "2026-09-03", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 85.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 104.3, "brier": 0.1411, "rps": 0.0636, "own_mae": 15.4, "persist_price_mae": 17.2}, {"day": "2026-09-04", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 106.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 129.8, "brier": 0.146, "rps": 0.0761, "own_mae": 24.0, "persist_price_mae": 30.2}, {"day": "2026-09-05", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 77.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.7, "brier": 0.1785, "rps": 0.063, "own_mae": 20.8, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2026-09-06", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 76.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 78.3, "brier": 0.128, "rps": 0.0665, "own_mae": 17.7, "persist_price_mae": 18.3}, {"day": "2026-09-07", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 85.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 103.2, "brier": 0.1117, "rps": 0.0618, "own_mae": 17.5, "persist_price_mae": 20.4}, {"day": "2026-09-08", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 127.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 143.6, "brier": 0.0834, "rps": 0.0868, "own_mae": 26.5, "persist_price_mae": 30.4}, {"day": "2026-09-09", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 86.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 94.4, "brier": 0.2103, "rps": 0.0618, "own_mae": 18.8, "persist_price_mae": 23.0}, {"day": "2026-09-10", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 90.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 115.1, "brier": 0.1637, "rps": 0.0674, "own_mae": 32.0, "persist_price_mae": 34.5}, {"day": "2026-09-11", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 77.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 87.8, "brier": 0.1924, "rps": 0.0525, "own_mae": 18.4, "persist_price_mae": 19.9}, {"day": "2026-09-12", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 85.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 95.9, "brier": 0.1062, "rps": 0.0613, "own_mae": 15.4, "persist_price_mae": 16.8}, {"day": "2026-09-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 96.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 102.2, "brier": 0.1266, "rps": 0.0726, "own_mae": 25.0, "persist_price_mae": 24.0}, {"day": "2026-09-14", "n": 91, "mae_mw": 89.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 96.3, "brier": 0.1256, "rps": 0.0696, "own_mae": 28.7, "persist_price_mae": 35.6}, {"day": "2026-09-15", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 109.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 131.3, "brier": 0.1955, "rps": 0.0861, "own_mae": 29.4, "persist_price_mae": 33.6}, {"day": "2026-09-16", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 116.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 143.6, "brier": 0.1105, "rps": 0.0902, "own_mae": 26.9, "persist_price_mae": 37.9}, {"day": "2026-09-17", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 115.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 143.7, "brier": 0.0988, "rps": 0.0865, "own_mae": 24.2, "persist_price_mae": 28.4}, {"day": "2026-09-18", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 107.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 124.8, "brier": 0.1578, "rps": 0.0828, "own_mae": 20.8, 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