{"from": "2026-07-18T03:30:00+00:00", "to": "2026-10-16T03:30:00+00:00", "lead_min": 1, "target": "systeemonbalans (MW) en onbalansprijs (EUR/MWh) per kwartier", "elia_si": {"n": 8613, "validated_share": 0.986, "point": {"mae_mw": 73.51, "rmse_mw": 98.0, "bias_mw": 12.32, "persistence": {"n": 8613, "mae_mw": 80.82, "rmse_mw": 108.83, "skill_mae": 0.0904, "skill_mse": 0.1891, "dm_abs": {"stat": -13.713, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -7.3069, "n": 8613, "hac_lag": 20}, "dm_sq": {"stat": -13.784, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -2239.9191, "n": 8613, "hac_lag": 20}}}, "classes": {"n": 8613, "rps": 0.05478, "rps_climatology": 0.10279, "rpss": 0.4671, "log_score": 0.8603, "log_score_climatology": 1.3734, "log_skill": 0.3736, "climatology": [0.0164, 0.1123, 0.385, 0.3491, 0.1194, 0.0179]}, "direction": {"brier": 0.12458, "reliability": 0.00508, "resolution": 0.12909, "uncertainty": 0.24981, "base_rate": 0.5136, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 2176, "forecast": 0.025, "observed": 0.047}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 645, "forecast": 0.15, "observed": 0.206}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 628, "forecast": 0.25, "observed": 0.279}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 644, "forecast": 0.346, "observed": 0.411}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 630, "forecast": 0.449, "observed": 0.575}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 554, "forecast": 0.549, "observed": 0.697}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 561, "forecast": 0.649, "observed": 0.797}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 572, "forecast": 0.751, "observed": 0.822}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 568, "forecast": 0.853, "observed": 0.879}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 1635, "forecast": 0.973, "observed": 0.969}], "brier_skill": 0.5013, "hint": {"p_up": 0.7, "p_down": 0.3, "coverage": 0.723, "hit_rate": 0.898, "n_calls": 6228}, "sign_hit_rate_point": 0.825}}, "traxes_ipf": {"n": 0}, "prices": {"models": {"eigen": {"n": 8638, "backtest_share": 0.951, "mae": 23.35, "pinball": 7.48, "interval_score": 125.39, "coverage": 0.791, "mean_width": 73.65, "skill_mae_vs_persistentie": 0.1219, "dm_vs_persistentie": {"stat": -11.227, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -3.2395, "n": 8638, "hac_lag": 20}}, "persistentie": {"n": 8640, "mae": 26.64}}, "decision_vs_da": {"eigen": {"n": 8635, "hit_rate": 0.824, "value_eur_mwh": 34.81, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.2, "capture": 0.845, "brier": 0.1229}, "traxes": {"n": 0}, "elia": {"n": 8610, "hit_rate": 0.697, "value_eur_mwh": 25.07, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.17, "capture": 0.609, "brier": 0.2182}, "persistentie": {"n": 8637, "hit_rate": 0.814, "value_eur_mwh": 33.98, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.19, "capture": 0.825, "brier": null}}, "reliability_eigen": {"brier": 0.12292, "reliability": 0.00052, "resolution": 0.12559, "uncertainty": 0.24851, "base_rate": 0.4614, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 2212, "forecast": 0.041, "observed": 0.036}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 736, "forecast": 0.149, "observed": 0.155}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 699, "forecast": 0.243, "observed": 0.222}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 519, "forecast": 0.351, "observed": 0.333}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 614, "forecast": 0.449, "observed": 0.49}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 632, "forecast": 0.549, "observed": 0.595}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 536, "forecast": 0.65, "observed": 0.69}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 567, "forecast": 0.755, "observed": 0.788}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 590, "forecast": 0.848, "observed": 0.858}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 1530, "forecast": 0.959, "observed": 0.956}]}, "decision_common": {"n": 8612, "eigen": {"n": 8609, "hit_rate": 0.825, "value_eur_mwh": 34.8, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.17, "capture": 0.845, "brier": 0.1226}, "elia": {"n": 8609, "hit_rate": 0.697, "value_eur_mwh": 25.08, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.17, "capture": 0.609, "brier": 0.2182}, "persistentie": {"n": 8609, "hit_rate": 0.815, "value_eur_mwh": 33.98, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.17, "capture": 0.825, "brier": null}}}, "notes": ["skill = 1 - score/baseline; > 0 = beter dan de baseline", "DM-test: stat < 0 = Elia beter dan persistentie; p < 0,05 = significant", "persistentie bij lead 1 min gebruikt het kwartier dat dan 14/15 bekend is (strenge baseline); klimatologie is in-sample", "eigen model: voor de live start zijn het walk-forward backtestvoorspellingen (maandelijks hertraind, nooit op toekomstige data)", "waarde vs DA: gem. teken*(onbalans-DA) per kwartier voor 1 MWh flex; capture = fractie van wat perfecte kennis oplevert"], "daily": [{"day": "2026-07-18", "n": 82, "mae_mw": 76.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.3, "brier": 0.1206, "rps": 0.0521, "own_mae": 28.2, "persist_price_mae": 33.3}, {"day": "2026-07-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 75.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 82.9, "brier": 0.1608, "rps": 0.0553, "own_mae": 17.4, "persist_price_mae": 22.5}, {"day": "2026-07-20", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 90.2, "brier": 0.09, "rps": 0.0573, "own_mae": 19.3, "persist_price_mae": 20.4}, {"day": "2026-07-21", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 67.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 79.8, "brier": 0.1361, "rps": 0.0488, "own_mae": 18.9, "persist_price_mae": 24.0}, {"day": "2026-07-22", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 77.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 91.0, "brier": 0.1029, "rps": 0.0494, "own_mae": 21.7, "persist_price_mae": 26.5}, {"day": "2026-07-23", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 70.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 77.9, "brier": 0.1604, "rps": 0.0579, "own_mae": 21.3, "persist_price_mae": 29.0}, {"day": "2026-07-24", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 50.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 52.2, "brier": 0.1511, "rps": 0.0445, "own_mae": 11.1, "persist_price_mae": 13.9}, {"day": "2026-07-25", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 90.9, "brier": 0.137, "rps": 0.0563, "own_mae": 16.7, "persist_price_mae": 18.7}, {"day": "2026-07-26", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 91.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 104.9, "brier": 0.1304, "rps": 0.0769, "own_mae": 17.6, "persist_price_mae": 22.2}, {"day": "2026-07-27", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 62.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 68.4, "brier": 0.1258, "rps": 0.0504, "own_mae": 17.5, "persist_price_mae": 21.2}, {"day": "2026-07-28", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.4, "brier": 0.1353, "rps": 0.0532, "own_mae": 28.4, "persist_price_mae": 37.0}, {"day": "2026-07-29", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 67.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 76.2, "brier": 0.0917, "rps": 0.047, "own_mae": 17.7, "persist_price_mae": 19.5}, {"day": "2026-07-30", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 72.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 74.8, "brier": 0.1246, "rps": 0.0521, "own_mae": 24.7, "persist_price_mae": 27.1}, {"day": "2026-07-31", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 56.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 56.9, "brier": 0.0983, "rps": 0.0422, "own_mae": 12.3, "persist_price_mae": 13.0}, {"day": "2026-08-01", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 63.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.6, "brier": 0.1522, "rps": 0.0467, "own_mae": 11.1, "persist_price_mae": 11.4}, {"day": "2026-08-02", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 67.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.5, "brier": 0.1144, "rps": 0.0452, "own_mae": 17.0, "persist_price_mae": 19.1}, {"day": "2026-08-03", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 60.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 75.5, "brier": 0.1214, "rps": 0.0472, "own_mae": 23.9, "persist_price_mae": 27.4}, {"day": "2026-08-04", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 91.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 96.3, "brier": 0.1908, "rps": 0.0744, "own_mae": 28.5, "persist_price_mae": 34.3}, {"day": "2026-08-05", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 70.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 82.2, "brier": 0.1848, "rps": 0.0615, "own_mae": 24.7, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2026-08-06", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 57.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.3, "brier": 0.1212, "rps": 0.0451, "own_mae": 14.8, "persist_price_mae": 19.2}, {"day": "2026-08-07", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 57.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 59.7, "brier": 0.156, "rps": 0.045, "own_mae": 23.3, "persist_price_mae": 26.4}, {"day": "2026-08-08", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 55.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.5, "brier": 0.1352, "rps": 0.045, "own_mae": 11.9, "persist_price_mae": 16.8}, {"day": "2026-08-09", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 80.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 89.8, "brier": 0.1215, "rps": 0.057, "own_mae": 17.8, "persist_price_mae": 20.1}, {"day": "2026-08-10", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 73.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 83.9, "brier": 0.1354, "rps": 0.0581, "own_mae": 18.6, "persist_price_mae": 20.5}, {"day": "2026-08-11", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 63.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 74.1, "brier": 0.137, "rps": 0.0486, "own_mae": 13.8, "persist_price_mae": 15.7}, {"day": "2026-08-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 57.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 68.9, "brier": 0.1537, "rps": 0.051, "own_mae": 17.7, "persist_price_mae": 18.1}, {"day": "2026-08-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 51.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 64.4, "brier": 0.1972, "rps": 0.0436, "own_mae": 13.4, "persist_price_mae": 16.3}, {"day": "2026-08-14", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 66.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.5, "brier": 0.1389, "rps": 0.0511, "own_mae": 19.1, "persist_price_mae": 22.4}, {"day": "2026-08-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 80.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 83.2, "brier": 0.1357, "rps": 0.0552, "own_mae": 75.7, "persist_price_mae": 81.9}, {"day": "2026-08-16", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 91.2, "brier": 0.0402, "rps": 0.0568, "own_mae": 16.2, "persist_price_mae": 18.4}, {"day": "2026-08-17", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 66.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.7, "brier": 0.1072, "rps": 0.0526, "own_mae": 16.7, "persist_price_mae": 19.8}, {"day": "2026-08-18", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 75.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 76.4, "brier": 0.0975, "rps": 0.0526, "own_mae": 62.0, "persist_price_mae": 58.5}, {"day": "2026-08-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 84.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 89.5, "brier": 0.0892, "rps": 0.0678, "own_mae": 20.0, "persist_price_mae": 21.2}, {"day": "2026-08-20", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 99.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 113.0, "brier": 0.1003, "rps": 0.0699, "own_mae": 23.9, "persist_price_mae": 29.2}, {"day": "2026-08-21", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 70.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 77.1, "brier": 0.1226, "rps": 0.052, "own_mae": 15.7, "persist_price_mae": 16.9}, {"day": "2026-08-22", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 79.3, "brier": 0.0809, "rps": 0.0546, "own_mae": 41.4, "persist_price_mae": 40.5}, {"day": "2026-08-23", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 64.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.4, "brier": 0.1257, "rps": 0.0415, "own_mae": 21.3, "persist_price_mae": 25.6}, {"day": "2026-08-24", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 76.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 78.1, "brier": 0.0987, "rps": 0.0541, "own_mae": 12.0, "persist_price_mae": 14.3}, {"day": "2026-08-25", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 82.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 95.3, "brier": 0.063, "rps": 0.0638, "own_mae": 23.7, "persist_price_mae": 28.1}, {"day": "2026-08-26", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 89.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 100.5, "brier": 0.1425, "rps": 0.068, "own_mae": 24.5, "persist_price_mae": 24.3}, {"day": "2026-08-27", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 101.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 91.0, "brier": 0.1596, "rps": 0.081, "own_mae": 33.2, "persist_price_mae": 36.7}, {"day": "2026-08-28", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 92.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 90.4, "brier": 0.1025, "rps": 0.0657, "own_mae": 55.1, "persist_price_mae": 51.2}, {"day": "2026-08-29", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 87.4, "brier": 0.1414, "rps": 0.0505, "own_mae": 18.6, "persist_price_mae": 22.2}, {"day": "2026-08-30", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 101.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 110.8, "brier": 0.0901, "rps": 0.0585, "own_mae": 21.2, "persist_price_mae": 24.5}, {"day": "2026-08-31", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 96.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 117.3, "brier": 0.1131, "rps": 0.069, "own_mae": 18.1, "persist_price_mae": 22.8}, {"day": "2026-09-01", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.4, "brier": 0.1372, "rps": 0.0633, "own_mae": 18.8, "persist_price_mae": 19.3}, {"day": "2026-09-02", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 93.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 92.4, "brier": 0.0904, "rps": 0.0648, "own_mae": 23.6, "persist_price_mae": 25.1}, {"day": "2026-09-03", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 80.9, "brier": 0.1111, "rps": 0.0539, "own_mae": 15.4, "persist_price_mae": 17.2}, {"day": "2026-09-04", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 90.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 99.0, "brier": 0.1076, "rps": 0.0627, "own_mae": 24.0, "persist_price_mae": 30.2}, {"day": "2026-09-05", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 67.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 74.9, "brier": 0.1812, "rps": 0.0574, "own_mae": 20.8, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2026-09-06", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 59.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 61.8, "brier": 0.0982, "rps": 0.0534, "own_mae": 17.7, "persist_price_mae": 18.3}, {"day": "2026-09-07", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 82.9, "brier": 0.0984, "rps": 0.0476, "own_mae": 17.5, "persist_price_mae": 20.4}, {"day": "2026-09-08", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 107.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 114.5, "brier": 0.0639, "rps": 0.0735, "own_mae": 26.5, "persist_price_mae": 30.4}, {"day": "2026-09-09", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 66.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.5, "brier": 0.1694, "rps": 0.0487, "own_mae": 18.8, "persist_price_mae": 23.0}, {"day": "2026-09-10", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 77.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 86.7, "brier": 0.1477, "rps": 0.0572, "own_mae": 32.0, "persist_price_mae": 34.5}, {"day": "2026-09-11", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 64.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 68.1, "brier": 0.1701, "rps": 0.0465, "own_mae": 18.4, "persist_price_mae": 19.9}, {"day": "2026-09-12", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 60.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 70.1, "brier": 0.0748, "rps": 0.0429, "own_mae": 15.4, "persist_price_mae": 16.8}, {"day": "2026-09-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 76.5, "brier": 0.0944, "rps": 0.0572, "own_mae": 25.0, "persist_price_mae": 24.0}, {"day": "2026-09-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 68.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.5, "brier": 0.101, "rps": 0.0507, "own_mae": 28.7, "persist_price_mae": 35.6}, {"day": "2026-09-15", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 78.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 89.2, "brier": 0.1451, "rps": 0.0649, "own_mae": 29.4, "persist_price_mae": 33.6}, {"day": "2026-09-16", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 82.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 98.2, "brier": 0.0721, "rps": 0.0607, "own_mae": 26.9, "persist_price_mae": 37.9}, {"day": "2026-09-17", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 102.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 114.4, "brier": 0.0795, "rps": 0.0734, "own_mae": 24.2, "persist_price_mae": 28.4}, {"day": "2026-09-18", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 96.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 105.8, "brier": 0.1408, "rps": 0.0745, "own_mae": 20.8, 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