{"from": "2026-10-09T04:15:00+00:00", "to": "2026-10-16T04:15:00+00:00", "lead_min": 14, "target": "systeemonbalans (MW) en onbalansprijs (EUR/MWh) per kwartier", "elia_si": {"n": 672, "validated_share": 0.82, "point": {"mae_mw": 95.96, "rmse_mw": 125.74, "bias_mw": 13.86, "persistence": {"n": 672, "mae_mw": 110.37, "rmse_mw": 145.87, "skill_mae": 0.1306, "skill_mse": 0.257, "dm_abs": {"stat": -5.54, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -14.4133, "n": 672, "hac_lag": 8}, "dm_sq": {"stat": -5.234, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -5468.3831, "n": 672, "hac_lag": 8}}}, "classes": {"n": 672, "rps": 0.06922, "rps_climatology": 0.09792, "rpss": 0.293, "log_score": 1.0372, "log_score_climatology": 1.332, "log_skill": 0.2213, "climatology": [0.0179, 0.1071, 0.4196, 0.3408, 0.1012, 0.0134]}, "direction": {"brier": 0.16903, "reliability": 0.00672, "resolution": 0.08715, "uncertainty": 0.24801, "base_rate": 0.5446, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 103, "forecast": 0.038, "observed": 0.058}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 50, "forecast": 0.152, "observed": 0.32}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 54, "forecast": 0.25, "observed": 0.296}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 73, "forecast": 0.351, "observed": 0.411}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 71, "forecast": 0.45, "observed": 0.592}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 86, "forecast": 0.551, "observed": 0.593}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 48, "forecast": 0.645, "observed": 0.75}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 53, "forecast": 0.747, "observed": 0.849}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 51, "forecast": 0.847, "observed": 0.863}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 83, "forecast": 0.962, "observed": 0.964}], "brier_skill": 0.3185, "hint": {"p_up": 0.7, "p_down": 0.3, "coverage": 0.586, "hit_rate": 0.858, "n_calls": 394}, "sign_hit_rate_point": 0.738}}, "traxes_ipf": {"n": 0}, "prices": {"models": {"eigen": {"n": 670, "backtest_share": 0.364, "mae": 31.94, "pinball": 10.1, "interval_score": 167.92, "coverage": 0.767, "mean_width": 90.05, "skill_mae_vs_persistentie": 0.1415, "dm_vs_persistentie": {"stat": -4.007, "p_value": 6e-05, "mean_loss_diff": -5.2629, "n": 670, "hac_lag": 8}}, "persistentie": {"n": 672, "mae": 37.91}}, "decision_vs_da": {"eigen": {"n": 669, "hit_rate": 0.833, "value_eur_mwh": 46.55, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.82, "capture": 0.834, "brier": 0.1133}, "traxes": {"n": 0}, "elia": {"n": 669, "hit_rate": 0.65, "value_eur_mwh": 29.54, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.16, "capture": 0.536, "brier": 0.2549}, "persistentie": {"n": 671, "hit_rate": 0.841, "value_eur_mwh": 46.5, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.72, "capture": 0.834, "brier": null}}, "reliability_eigen": {"brier": 0.1133, "reliability": 0.00465, "resolution": 0.10777, "uncertainty": 0.21702, "base_rate": 0.6816, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 87, "forecast": 0.039, "observed": 0.034}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 33, "forecast": 0.158, "observed": 0.303}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 30, "forecast": 0.252, "observed": 0.267}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 25, "forecast": 0.35, "observed": 0.44}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 41, "forecast": 0.446, "observed": 0.61}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 36, "forecast": 0.548, "observed": 0.639}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 51, "forecast": 0.656, "observed": 0.706}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 57, "forecast": 0.76, "observed": 0.86}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 76, "forecast": 0.853, "observed": 0.829}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 233, "forecast": 0.96, "observed": 0.979}]}, "decision_common": {"n": 669, "eigen": {"n": 668, "hit_rate": 0.832, "value_eur_mwh": 45.91, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.2, "capture": 0.832, "brier": 0.1135}, "elia": {"n": 668, "hit_rate": 0.651, "value_eur_mwh": 29.63, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.2, "capture": 0.537, "brier": 0.2544}, "persistentie": {"n": 668, "hit_rate": 0.843, "value_eur_mwh": 46.06, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.2, "capture": 0.834, "brier": null}}}, "notes": ["skill = 1 - score/baseline; > 0 = beter dan de baseline", "DM-test: stat < 0 = Elia beter dan persistentie; p < 0,05 = significant", "persistentie bij lead 1 min gebruikt het kwartier dat dan 14/15 bekend is (strenge baseline); klimatologie is in-sample", "eigen model: voor de live start zijn het walk-forward backtestvoorspellingen (maandelijks hertraind, nooit op toekomstige data)", "waarde vs DA: gem. teken*(onbalans-DA) per kwartier voor 1 MWh flex; capture = fractie van wat perfecte kennis oplevert"], "daily": [{"day": "2026-10-09", "n": 79, "mae_mw": 105.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 127.8, "brier": 0.1211, "rps": 0.0672, "own_mae": 19.6, "persist_price_mae": 23.7}, {"day": "2026-10-10", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 81.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 97.7, "brier": 0.1965, "rps": 0.0595, "own_mae": 25.1, "persist_price_mae": 27.8}, {"day": "2026-10-11", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 97.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 114.8, "brier": 0.1783, "rps": 0.0744, "own_mae": 38.0, "persist_price_mae": 42.1}, {"day": "2026-10-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 111.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 119.4, "brier": 0.161, "rps": 0.0858, "own_mae": 35.3, "persist_price_mae": 41.1}, {"day": "2026-10-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 98.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 111.9, "brier": 0.1988, "rps": 0.0691, "own_mae": 31.4, "persist_price_mae": 38.0}, {"day": "2026-10-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 89.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 99.9, "brier": 0.205, "rps": 0.062, "own_mae": 28.8, "persist_price_mae": 35.4}, {"day": "2026-10-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 92.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 109.3, "brier": 0.1169, "rps": 0.0701, "own_mae": 46.5, "persist_price_mae": 53.4}, {"day": "2026-10-16", "n": 17, "mae_mw": 71.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 82.0, "brier": 0.1533, "rps": 0.0465, "own_mae": 14.5, "persist_price_mae": 18.8}]}