{"from": "2026-10-09T03:30:00+00:00", "to": "2026-10-16T03:30:00+00:00", "lead_min": 1, "target": "systeemonbalans (MW) en onbalansprijs (EUR/MWh) per kwartier", "elia_si": {"n": 670, "validated_share": 0.824, "point": {"mae_mw": 72.92, "rmse_mw": 95.51, "bias_mw": 11.57, "persistence": {"n": 670, "mae_mw": 79.74, "rmse_mw": 103.48, "skill_mae": 0.0855, "skill_mse": 0.1482, "dm_abs": {"stat": -4.328, "p_value": 2e-05, "mean_loss_diff": -6.8198, "n": 670, "hac_lag": 8}, "dm_sq": {"stat": -4.534, "p_value": 1e-05, "mean_loss_diff": -1586.7566, "n": 670, "hac_lag": 8}}}, "classes": {"n": 670, "rps": 0.05165, "rps_climatology": 0.09885, "rpss": 0.4775, "log_score": 0.8021, "log_score_climatology": 1.34, "log_skill": 0.4014, "climatology": [0.0179, 0.106, 0.4179, 0.3388, 0.1045, 0.0149]}, "direction": {"brier": 0.12473, "reliability": 0.00717, "resolution": 0.1289, "uncertainty": 0.24825, "base_rate": 0.5418, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 143, "forecast": 0.024, "observed": 0.042}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 54, "forecast": 0.144, "observed": 0.204}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 50, "forecast": 0.248, "observed": 0.44}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 55, "forecast": 0.344, "observed": 0.309}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 43, "forecast": 0.451, "observed": 0.512}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 38, "forecast": 0.549, "observed": 0.605}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 51, "forecast": 0.643, "observed": 0.843}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 51, "forecast": 0.756, "observed": 0.824}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 48, "forecast": 0.851, "observed": 0.896}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 137, "forecast": 0.971, "observed": 0.978}], "brier_skill": 0.4976, "hint": {"p_up": 0.7, "p_down": 0.3, "coverage": 0.721, "hit_rate": 0.884, "n_calls": 483}, "sign_hit_rate_point": 0.825}}, "traxes_ipf": {"n": 0}, "prices": {"models": {"eigen": {"n": 670, "backtest_share": 0.369, "mae": 32.04, "pinball": 10.12, "interval_score": 168.26, "coverage": 0.764, "mean_width": 90.17, "skill_mae_vs_persistentie": 0.1399, "dm_vs_persistentie": {"stat": -3.963, "p_value": 7e-05, "mean_loss_diff": -5.2108, "n": 670, "hac_lag": 8}}, "persistentie": {"n": 672, "mae": 37.95}}, "decision_vs_da": {"eigen": {"n": 669, "hit_rate": 0.836, "value_eur_mwh": 46.94, "perfect_eur_mwh": 56.17, "capture": 0.836, "brier": 0.1121}, "traxes": {"n": 0}, "elia": {"n": 669, "hit_rate": 0.655, "value_eur_mwh": 29.96, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.5, "capture": 0.54, "brier": 0.2517}, "persistentie": {"n": 671, "hit_rate": 0.844, "value_eur_mwh": 46.89, "perfect_eur_mwh": 56.06, "capture": 0.836, "brier": null}}, "reliability_eigen": {"brier": 0.11207, "reliability": 0.00423, "resolution": 0.11022, "uncertainty": 0.21862, "base_rate": 0.6771, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 90, "forecast": 0.039, "observed": 0.033}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 33, "forecast": 0.158, "observed": 0.303}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 30, "forecast": 0.252, "observed": 0.267}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 24, "forecast": 0.349, "observed": 0.417}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 40, "forecast": 0.447, "observed": 0.6}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 36, "forecast": 0.548, "observed": 0.639}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 50, "forecast": 0.656, "observed": 0.7}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 57, "forecast": 0.76, "observed": 0.86}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 76, "forecast": 0.853, "observed": 0.829}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 233, "forecast": 0.96, "observed": 0.979}]}, "decision_common": {"n": 669, "eigen": {"n": 668, "hit_rate": 0.835, "value_eur_mwh": 46.3, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.54, "capture": 0.834, "brier": 0.1122}, "elia": {"n": 668, "hit_rate": 0.656, "value_eur_mwh": 30.05, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.54, "capture": 0.541, "brier": 0.2513}, "persistentie": {"n": 668, "hit_rate": 0.846, "value_eur_mwh": 46.45, "perfect_eur_mwh": 55.54, "capture": 0.836, "brier": null}}}, "notes": ["skill = 1 - score/baseline; > 0 = beter dan de baseline", "DM-test: stat < 0 = Elia beter dan persistentie; p < 0,05 = significant", "persistentie bij lead 1 min gebruikt het kwartier dat dan 14/15 bekend is (strenge baseline); klimatologie is in-sample", "eigen model: voor de live start zijn het walk-forward backtestvoorspellingen (maandelijks hertraind, nooit op toekomstige data)", "waarde vs DA: gem. teken*(onbalans-DA) per kwartier voor 1 MWh flex; capture = fractie van wat perfecte kennis oplevert"], "daily": [{"day": "2026-10-09", "n": 82, "mae_mw": 76.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 92.3, "brier": 0.0754, "rps": 0.0465, "own_mae": 20.1, "persist_price_mae": 23.8}, {"day": "2026-10-10", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 64.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.1, "brier": 0.1423, "rps": 0.0465, "own_mae": 25.1, "persist_price_mae": 27.8}, {"day": "2026-10-11", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 71.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 77.7, "brier": 0.1476, "rps": 0.0565, "own_mae": 38.0, "persist_price_mae": 42.1}, {"day": "2026-10-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 82.9, "brier": 0.0922, "rps": 0.0542, "own_mae": 35.3, "persist_price_mae": 41.1}, {"day": "2026-10-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 72.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 79.8, "brier": 0.1554, "rps": 0.0554, "own_mae": 31.4, "persist_price_mae": 38.0}, {"day": "2026-10-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 76.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 79.7, "brier": 0.1677, "rps": 0.0506, "own_mae": 28.8, "persist_price_mae": 35.4}, {"day": "2026-10-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 80.0, "brier": 0.0896, "rps": 0.0537, "own_mae": 46.5, "persist_price_mae": 53.4}, {"day": "2026-10-16", "n": 14, "mae_mw": 42.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 49.5, "brier": 0.0995, "rps": 0.0341, "own_mae": 15.4, "persist_price_mae": 19.1}]}