{"from": "2025-09-11T04:15:00+00:00", "to": "2026-10-16T04:15:00+00:00", "lead_min": 14, "target": "systeemonbalans (MW) en onbalansprijs (EUR/MWh) per kwartier", "elia_si": {"n": 37026, "validated_share": 0.997, "point": {"mae_mw": 99.33, "rmse_mw": 131.85, "bias_mw": -2.22, "persistence": {"n": 37026, "mae_mw": 104.92, "rmse_mw": 141.04, "skill_mae": 0.0532, "skill_mse": 0.1261, "dm_abs": {"stat": -10.403, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -5.5809, "n": 37026, "hac_lag": 33}, "dm_sq": {"stat": -12.483, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -2508.5547, "n": 37026, "hac_lag": 33}}}, "classes": {"n": 36777, "rps": 0.07353, "rps_climatology": 0.09492, "rpss": 0.2253, "log_score": 1.0949, "log_score_climatology": 1.3053, "log_skill": 0.1612, "climatology": [0.0123, 0.0908, 0.3884, 0.3875, 0.1071, 0.0139]}, "direction": {"brier": 0.18492, "reliability": 0.00065, "resolution": 0.06517, "uncertainty": 0.24993, "base_rate": 0.4915, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 4037, "forecast": 0.041, "observed": 0.091}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 3008, "forecast": 0.149, "observed": 0.182}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 3181, "forecast": 0.251, "observed": 0.262}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 3841, "forecast": 0.35, "observed": 0.334}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 4391, "forecast": 0.45, "observed": 0.452}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 4512, "forecast": 0.549, "observed": 0.551}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 4174, "forecast": 0.648, "observed": 0.643}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 3572, "forecast": 0.749, "observed": 0.739}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 2987, "forecast": 0.849, "observed": 0.823}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 3074, "forecast": 0.954, "observed": 0.908}], "brier_skill": 0.2601, "hint": {"p_up": 0.7, "p_down": 0.3, "coverage": 0.54, "hit_rate": 0.824, "n_calls": 19871}, "sign_hit_rate_point": 0.726}}, "traxes_ipf": {"n": 0}, "prices": {"models": {"eigen": {"n": 38398, "backtest_share": 0.989, "mae": 25.97, "pinball": 8.55, "interval_score": 145.09, "coverage": 0.788, "mean_width": 77.31, "skill_mae_vs_persistentie": 0.0363, "dm_vs_persistentie": {"stat": -0.859, "p_value": 0.39012, "mean_loss_diff": -0.9775, "n": 38398, "hac_lag": 33}}, "persistentie": {"n": 38400, "mae": 26.96}}, "decision_vs_da": {"eigen": {"n": 38376, "hit_rate": 0.814, "value_eur_mwh": 34.59, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.74, "capture": 0.829, "brier": 0.1299}, "traxes": {"n": 0}, "elia": {"n": 37529, "hit_rate": 0.688, "value_eur_mwh": 25.11, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.83, "capture": 0.6, "brier": 0.2144}, "persistentie": {"n": 38378, "hit_rate": 0.812, "value_eur_mwh": 34.25, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.74, "capture": 0.821, "brier": null}}, "reliability_eigen": {"brier": 0.12986, "reliability": 0.00021, "resolution": 0.11766, "uncertainty": 0.24795, "base_rate": 0.4548, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 9353, "forecast": 0.043, "observed": 0.046}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 3421, "forecast": 0.151, "observed": 0.146}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 3205, "forecast": 0.243, "observed": 0.229}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 2471, "forecast": 0.351, "observed": 0.323}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 2939, "forecast": 0.45, "observed": 0.458}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 2999, "forecast": 0.55, "observed": 0.568}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 2399, "forecast": 0.649, "observed": 0.666}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 2624, "forecast": 0.753, "observed": 0.784}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 2456, "forecast": 0.848, "observed": 0.859}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 6509, "forecast": 0.958, "observed": 0.949}]}, "decision_common": {"n": 37550, "eigen": {"n": 37528, "hit_rate": 0.814, "value_eur_mwh": 34.71, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.83, "capture": 0.83, "brier": 0.1295}, "elia": {"n": 37528, "hit_rate": 0.688, "value_eur_mwh": 25.11, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.83, "capture": 0.6, "brier": 0.2144}, "persistentie": {"n": 37528, "hit_rate": 0.813, "value_eur_mwh": 34.37, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.83, "capture": 0.822, "brier": null}}}, "notes": ["skill = 1 - score/baseline; > 0 = beter dan de baseline", "DM-test: stat < 0 = Elia beter dan persistentie; p < 0,05 = significant", "persistentie bij lead 1 min gebruikt het kwartier dat dan 14/15 bekend is (strenge baseline); klimatologie is in-sample", "eigen model: voor de live start zijn het walk-forward backtestvoorspellingen (maandelijks hertraind, nooit op toekomstige data)", "waarde vs DA: gem. teken*(onbalans-DA) per kwartier voor 1 MWh flex; capture = fractie van wat perfecte kennis oplevert"], "daily": [{"day": "2025-09-11", "n": 79, "mae_mw": 146.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 156.1, "brier": 0.1884, "rps": 0.1075, "own_mae": 37.8, "persist_price_mae": 51.0}, {"day": "2025-09-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 90.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 102.6, "brier": 0.2172, "rps": 0.0603, "own_mae": 23.5, "persist_price_mae": 26.6}, {"day": "2025-09-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 132.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 155.7, "brier": 0.1837, "rps": 0.0947, "own_mae": 29.5, "persist_price_mae": 36.8}, {"day": "2025-09-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 85.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 103.3, "brier": 0.1504, "rps": 0.0645, "own_mae": 32.1, "persist_price_mae": 38.8}, {"day": "2025-09-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 90.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 83.7, "brier": 0.247, "rps": 0.0737, "own_mae": 29.3, "persist_price_mae": 31.0}, {"day": "2025-09-16", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 87.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 90.2, "brier": 0.203, "rps": 0.0694, "own_mae": 23.3, "persist_price_mae": 20.6}, {"day": "2025-09-17", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 118.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 122.4, "brier": 0.1869, "rps": 0.0873, "own_mae": 31.9, "persist_price_mae": 33.7}, {"day": "2025-09-18", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 103.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 94.3, "brier": 0.1655, "rps": 0.085, "own_mae": 50.2, "persist_price_mae": 59.3}, {"day": "2025-09-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 104.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 121.6, "brier": 0.1575, "rps": 0.0851, "own_mae": 35.7, "persist_price_mae": 42.5}, {"day": "2025-09-20", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 144.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 161.0, "brier": 0.1976, "rps": 0.0988, "own_mae": 43.5, "persist_price_mae": 56.7}, {"day": "2025-09-21", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 135.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 150.1, "brier": 0.1938, "rps": 0.1056, "own_mae": 37.8, "persist_price_mae": 48.4}, {"day": "2025-09-22", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 124.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 131.8, "brier": 0.2019, "rps": 0.0927, "own_mae": 38.0, "persist_price_mae": 36.0}, {"day": "2025-09-23", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 105.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 124.2, "brier": 0.2181, "rps": 0.0746, "own_mae": 23.1, "persist_price_mae": 22.5}, {"day": "2025-09-24", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 104.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 113.0, "brier": 0.1915, "rps": 0.0823, "own_mae": 24.9, "persist_price_mae": 28.1}, {"day": "2025-09-25", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 110.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 117.1, "brier": 0.1342, "rps": 0.0801, "own_mae": 42.5, "persist_price_mae": 42.1}, {"day": "2025-09-26", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 79.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 93.5, "brier": 0.1845, "rps": 0.0698, "own_mae": 22.8, "persist_price_mae": 25.2}, {"day": "2025-09-27", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 58.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.0, "brier": 0.202, "rps": 0.0518, "own_mae": 17.0, "persist_price_mae": 18.6}, {"day": "2025-09-28", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 77.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 89.4, "brier": 0.186, "rps": 0.0655, "own_mae": 21.3, "persist_price_mae": 24.7}, {"day": "2025-09-29", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 84.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 98.5, "brier": 0.225, "rps": 0.068, "own_mae": 21.2, "persist_price_mae": 26.3}, {"day": "2025-09-30", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 90.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 102.6, "brier": 0.2381, "rps": 0.0677, "own_mae": 24.8, "persist_price_mae": 31.1}, {"day": "2025-10-01", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 81.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 75.4, "brier": 0.2592, "rps": 0.0675, "own_mae": 20.9, "persist_price_mae": 20.2}, {"day": "2025-10-02", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 77.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 82.7, "brier": 0.1838, "rps": 0.0539, "own_mae": 14.9, "persist_price_mae": 14.4}, {"day": "2025-10-03", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 82.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 106.1, "brier": 0.1851, "rps": 0.0571, "own_mae": 17.5, "persist_price_mae": 18.6}, {"day": "2025-10-04", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 95.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 93.4, "brier": 0.1891, "rps": 0.0693, "own_mae": 16.5, "persist_price_mae": 13.4}, {"day": "2025-10-05", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 95.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 103.8, "brier": 0.1859, "rps": 0.0672, "own_mae": 14.5, "persist_price_mae": 16.8}, {"day": "2025-10-06", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 98.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 103.4, "brier": 0.2032, "rps": 0.0759, "own_mae": 22.3, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2025-10-07", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 87.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 90.6, "brier": 0.1884, "rps": 0.0656, "own_mae": 40.9, "persist_price_mae": 43.3}, {"day": "2025-10-08", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 73.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 64.0, "brier": 0.2781, "rps": 0.0625, "own_mae": 32.7, "persist_price_mae": 33.1}, {"day": "2025-10-09", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 83.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 96.4, "brier": 0.2391, "rps": 0.0665, "own_mae": 24.7, "persist_price_mae": 30.9}, {"day": "2025-10-10", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 92.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 101.1, "brier": 0.2264, "rps": 0.0677, "own_mae": 22.3, "persist_price_mae": 22.4}, {"day": "2025-10-11", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 68.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 73.2, "brier": 0.2016, "rps": 0.0565, "own_mae": 11.7, "persist_price_mae": 11.2}, {"day": "2025-10-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 86.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 86.2, "brier": 0.1704, "rps": 0.0677, "own_mae": 26.7, "persist_price_mae": 25.6}, {"day": "2025-10-13", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 101.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 100.2, "brier": 0.1584, "rps": 0.0791, "own_mae": 26.5, "persist_price_mae": 25.1}, {"day": "2025-10-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 76.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.9, "brier": 0.2126, "rps": 0.0561, "own_mae": 22.2, "persist_price_mae": 25.7}, {"day": "2025-10-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 87.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 96.3, "brier": 0.2115, "rps": 0.0584, "own_mae": 23.5, "persist_price_mae": 29.3}, {"day": "2025-10-16", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 87.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 97.2, "brier": 0.1938, "rps": 0.0624, "own_mae": 21.5, "persist_price_mae": 29.3}, {"day": "2025-10-17", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 78.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 100.2, "brier": 0.2184, "rps": 0.0621, "own_mae": 14.1, "persist_price_mae": 12.9}, {"day": "2025-10-18", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 92.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 111.6, "brier": 0.1763, "rps": 0.069, "own_mae": 18.8, "persist_price_mae": 20.4}, {"day": "2025-10-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 111.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 126.8, "brier": 0.1831, "rps": 0.0811, "own_mae": 32.5, "persist_price_mae": 34.3}, {"day": "2025-10-20", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 122.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 139.4, "brier": 0.1748, "rps": 0.0884, "own_mae": 27.1, "persist_price_mae": 30.5}, {"day": "2025-10-21", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 98.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 89.8, "brier": 0.2138, "rps": 0.0684, "own_mae": 26.3, "persist_price_mae": 32.4}, {"day": "2025-10-22", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 109.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 95.6, "brier": 0.2066, "rps": 0.0826, "own_mae": 30.5, "persist_price_mae": 30.3}, {"day": "2025-10-23", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 135.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 119.8, "brier": 0.262, "rps": 0.0989, "own_mae": 40.8, "persist_price_mae": 39.6}, {"day": "2025-10-24", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 88.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 66.2, "brier": 0.2591, "rps": 0.0684, "own_mae": 26.0, "persist_price_mae": 24.2}, {"day": "2025-10-25", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 107.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 81.7, "brier": 0.2357, "rps": 0.0832, "own_mae": 20.1, "persist_price_mae": 21.4}, {"day": "2025-10-26", "n": 89, "mae_mw": 98.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 96.7, "brier": 0.1805, "rps": 0.074, "own_mae": 24.1, "persist_price_mae": 22.8}, {"day": "2025-10-27", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 92.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 98.7, "brier": 0.2031, "rps": 0.0798, "own_mae": 22.6, "persist_price_mae": 25.5}, {"day": "2025-10-28", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 112.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 87.9, "brier": 0.2565, "rps": 0.0808, "own_mae": 23.1, "persist_price_mae": 25.1}, {"day": "2025-10-29", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 106.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 90.5, "brier": 0.2127, "rps": 0.0685, "own_mae": 26.9, "persist_price_mae": 35.6}, {"day": "2025-10-30", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 87.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 93.1, "brier": 0.2385, "rps": 0.0682, "own_mae": 23.8, "persist_price_mae": 21.8}, {"day": "2025-10-31", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 114.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 127.3, "brier": 0.2596, "rps": 0.0856, "own_mae": 16.6, "persist_price_mae": 16.5}, {"day": "2025-11-01", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 107.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 107.4, "brier": 0.2303, "rps": 0.0772, "own_mae": 24.4, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2025-11-02", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 119.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 132.9, "brier": 0.1479, "rps": 0.0821, "own_mae": 23.4, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2025-11-03", "n": 88, "mae_mw": 104.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 102.6, "brier": 0.1819, "rps": 0.0745, "own_mae": 28.4, "persist_price_mae": 37.7}, {"day": "2025-11-04", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 105.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 101.9, "brier": 0.2055, "rps": 0.0801, "own_mae": 24.5, "persist_price_mae": 25.9}, {"day": "2025-11-05", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 133.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 134.5, "brier": 0.185, "rps": 0.0842, "own_mae": 26.0, "persist_price_mae": 34.0}, {"day": "2025-11-06", "n": 88, "mae_mw": 97.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 104.5, "brier": 0.175, "rps": 0.0716, "own_mae": 21.7, "persist_price_mae": 23.3}, {"day": "2025-11-07", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 87.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 94.3, "brier": 0.1792, "rps": 0.0619, "own_mae": 16.7, "persist_price_mae": 22.1}, {"day": "2025-11-08", "n": 30, "mae_mw": 41.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 48.7, "brier": 0.2422, "rps": 0.0499, "own_mae": 16.2, "persist_price_mae": 16.1}, {"day": "2025-11-09", "n": 0, "own_mae": 14.0, "persist_price_mae": 13.7}, {"day": "2025-11-10", "n": 0, "own_mae": 24.4, "persist_price_mae": 25.3}, {"day": "2025-11-11", "n": 0, "own_mae": 25.9, "persist_price_mae": 26.7}, {"day": "2025-11-12", "n": 0, "own_mae": 31.1, "persist_price_mae": 33.3}, {"day": "2025-11-13", "n": 0, "own_mae": 34.2, "persist_price_mae": 33.8}, {"day": "2025-11-14", "n": 45, "mae_mw": 89.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 70.7, "brier": 0.2523, "rps": 0.062, "own_mae": 21.9, 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