{"from": "2025-09-11T03:30:00+00:00", "to": "2026-10-16T03:30:00+00:00", "lead_min": 1, "target": "systeemonbalans (MW) en onbalansprijs (EUR/MWh) per kwartier", "elia_si": {"n": 37551, "validated_share": 0.997, "point": {"mae_mw": 77.3, "rmse_mw": 104.15, "bias_mw": 0.01, "persistence": {"n": 37551, "mae_mw": 79.99, "rmse_mw": 108.17, "skill_mae": 0.0336, "skill_mse": 0.0729, "dm_abs": {"stat": -7.538, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -2.6878, "n": 37551, "hac_lag": 33}, "dm_sq": {"stat": -6.639, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -852.3807, "n": 37551, "hac_lag": 33}}}, "classes": {"n": 37303, "rps": 0.05769, "rps_climatology": 0.09483, "rpss": 0.3916, "log_score": 0.902, "log_score_climatology": 1.3044, "log_skill": 0.3085, "climatology": [0.0123, 0.0907, 0.3891, 0.3873, 0.1068, 0.0138]}, "direction": {"brier": 0.14302, "reliability": 0.00092, "resolution": 0.107, "uncertainty": 0.24994, "base_rate": 0.4921, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 6460, "forecast": 0.03, "observed": 0.051}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 2807, "forecast": 0.15, "observed": 0.156}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 2879, "forecast": 0.249, "observed": 0.197}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 3166, "forecast": 0.35, "observed": 0.314}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 3474, "forecast": 0.451, "observed": 0.419}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 3636, "forecast": 0.549, "observed": 0.546}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 3554, "forecast": 0.649, "observed": 0.692}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 3150, "forecast": 0.748, "observed": 0.792}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 2766, "forecast": 0.851, "observed": 0.884}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 5411, "forecast": 0.965, "observed": 0.96}], "brier_skill": 0.4278, "hint": {"p_up": 0.7, "p_down": 0.3, "coverage": 0.63, "hit_rate": 0.892, "n_calls": 23499}, "sign_hit_rate_point": 0.794}}, "traxes_ipf": {"n": 0}, "prices": {"models": {"eigen": {"n": 38398, "backtest_share": 0.989, "mae": 25.97, "pinball": 8.55, "interval_score": 145.1, "coverage": 0.788, "mean_width": 77.31, "skill_mae_vs_persistentie": 0.0362, "dm_vs_persistentie": {"stat": -0.859, "p_value": 0.39045, "mean_loss_diff": -0.9768, "n": 38398, "hac_lag": 33}}, "persistentie": {"n": 38400, "mae": 26.96}}, "decision_vs_da": {"eigen": {"n": 38376, "hit_rate": 0.814, "value_eur_mwh": 34.59, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.74, "capture": 0.829, "brier": 0.1299}, "traxes": {"n": 0}, "elia": {"n": 37529, "hit_rate": 0.688, "value_eur_mwh": 25.11, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.84, "capture": 0.6, "brier": 0.2144}, "persistentie": {"n": 38378, "hit_rate": 0.812, "value_eur_mwh": 34.25, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.74, "capture": 0.821, "brier": null}}, "reliability_eigen": {"brier": 0.12986, "reliability": 0.00021, "resolution": 0.11765, "uncertainty": 0.24795, "base_rate": 0.4547, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 9353, "forecast": 0.043, "observed": 0.046}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 3421, "forecast": 0.151, "observed": 0.146}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 3205, "forecast": 0.243, "observed": 0.229}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 2470, "forecast": 0.351, "observed": 0.323}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 2938, "forecast": 0.45, "observed": 0.458}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 3000, "forecast": 0.55, "observed": 0.568}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 2399, "forecast": 0.649, "observed": 0.666}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 2624, "forecast": 0.753, "observed": 0.784}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 2457, "forecast": 0.848, "observed": 0.859}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 6509, "forecast": 0.958, "observed": 0.949}]}, "decision_common": {"n": 37550, "eigen": {"n": 37528, "hit_rate": 0.814, "value_eur_mwh": 34.71, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.84, "capture": 0.83, "brier": 0.1295}, "elia": {"n": 37528, "hit_rate": 0.688, "value_eur_mwh": 25.11, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.84, "capture": 0.6, "brier": 0.2144}, "persistentie": {"n": 37528, "hit_rate": 0.813, "value_eur_mwh": 34.37, "perfect_eur_mwh": 41.84, "capture": 0.822, "brier": null}}}, "notes": ["skill = 1 - score/baseline; > 0 = beter dan de baseline", "DM-test: stat < 0 = Elia beter dan persistentie; p < 0,05 = significant", "persistentie bij lead 1 min gebruikt het kwartier dat dan 14/15 bekend is (strenge baseline); klimatologie is in-sample", "eigen model: voor de live start zijn het walk-forward backtestvoorspellingen (maandelijks hertraind, nooit op toekomstige data)", "waarde vs DA: gem. teken*(onbalans-DA) per kwartier voor 1 MWh flex; capture = fractie van wat perfecte kennis oplevert"], "daily": [{"day": "2025-09-11", "n": 82, "mae_mw": 109.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 118.4, "brier": 0.12, "rps": 0.0759, "own_mae": 37.5, "persist_price_mae": 50.1}, {"day": "2025-09-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 67.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 76.0, "brier": 0.1584, "rps": 0.0459, "own_mae": 23.5, "persist_price_mae": 26.6}, {"day": "2025-09-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 99.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 113.6, "brier": 0.1471, "rps": 0.0715, "own_mae": 29.5, "persist_price_mae": 36.8}, {"day": "2025-09-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 66.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 77.4, "brier": 0.1122, "rps": 0.0457, "own_mae": 32.1, "persist_price_mae": 38.8}, {"day": "2025-09-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 70.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 70.8, "brier": 0.185, "rps": 0.0548, "own_mae": 29.3, "persist_price_mae": 31.0}, {"day": "2025-09-16", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 70.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 73.5, "brier": 0.1921, "rps": 0.0615, "own_mae": 23.3, "persist_price_mae": 20.6}, {"day": "2025-09-17", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 87.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 94.9, "brier": 0.1172, "rps": 0.0656, "own_mae": 31.9, "persist_price_mae": 33.7}, {"day": "2025-09-18", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 76.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 75.1, "brier": 0.1137, "rps": 0.0604, "own_mae": 50.2, "persist_price_mae": 59.3}, {"day": "2025-09-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 87.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 92.2, "brier": 0.1323, "rps": 0.0686, "own_mae": 35.7, "persist_price_mae": 42.5}, {"day": "2025-09-20", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 107.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 118.8, "brier": 0.1295, "rps": 0.0791, "own_mae": 43.5, "persist_price_mae": 56.7}, {"day": "2025-09-21", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 102.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 108.9, "brier": 0.1374, "rps": 0.0806, "own_mae": 37.8, "persist_price_mae": 48.4}, {"day": "2025-09-22", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 86.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 97.2, "brier": 0.1431, "rps": 0.0664, "own_mae": 38.0, "persist_price_mae": 36.0}, {"day": "2025-09-23", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 81.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 95.3, "brier": 0.165, "rps": 0.058, "own_mae": 23.1, "persist_price_mae": 22.5}, {"day": "2025-09-24", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 74.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 84.3, "brier": 0.1354, "rps": 0.0584, "own_mae": 24.9, "persist_price_mae": 28.1}, {"day": "2025-09-25", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 81.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 92.7, "brier": 0.0833, "rps": 0.0566, "own_mae": 42.5, "persist_price_mae": 42.1}, {"day": "2025-09-26", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 57.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.2, "brier": 0.1268, "rps": 0.0482, "own_mae": 22.8, "persist_price_mae": 25.2}, {"day": "2025-09-27", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 45.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 57.8, "brier": 0.1936, "rps": 0.0483, "own_mae": 17.0, "persist_price_mae": 18.6}, {"day": "2025-09-28", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 62.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.0, "brier": 0.1574, "rps": 0.0552, "own_mae": 21.3, "persist_price_mae": 24.7}, {"day": "2025-09-29", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 62.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 76.7, "brier": 0.1805, "rps": 0.0533, "own_mae": 21.2, "persist_price_mae": 26.3}, {"day": "2025-09-30", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 63.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 76.6, "brier": 0.1651, "rps": 0.0499, "own_mae": 24.8, "persist_price_mae": 31.1}, {"day": "2025-10-01", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 65.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 61.2, "brier": 0.1843, "rps": 0.051, "own_mae": 20.9, "persist_price_mae": 20.2}, {"day": "2025-10-02", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 58.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 63.8, "brier": 0.1355, "rps": 0.0433, "own_mae": 14.9, "persist_price_mae": 14.4}, {"day": "2025-10-03", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 63.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.9, "brier": 0.1353, "rps": 0.0411, "own_mae": 17.5, "persist_price_mae": 18.6}, {"day": "2025-10-04", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 70.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.8, "brier": 0.1339, "rps": 0.0507, "own_mae": 16.5, "persist_price_mae": 13.4}, {"day": "2025-10-05", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 69.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 78.7, "brier": 0.1223, "rps": 0.0486, "own_mae": 14.5, "persist_price_mae": 16.8}, {"day": "2025-10-06", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 79.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 78.5, "brier": 0.1338, "rps": 0.0581, "own_mae": 22.3, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2025-10-07", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 62.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 64.6, "brier": 0.1566, "rps": 0.0499, "own_mae": 40.9, "persist_price_mae": 43.3}, {"day": "2025-10-08", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 54.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 50.4, "brier": 0.2162, "rps": 0.0505, "own_mae": 32.7, "persist_price_mae": 33.1}, {"day": "2025-10-09", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 75.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 81.7, "brier": 0.2234, "rps": 0.0605, "own_mae": 24.7, "persist_price_mae": 30.9}, {"day": "2025-10-10", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 76.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 86.0, "brier": 0.1715, "rps": 0.0561, "own_mae": 22.3, "persist_price_mae": 22.4}, {"day": "2025-10-11", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 48.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 51.4, "brier": 0.158, "rps": 0.0447, "own_mae": 11.7, "persist_price_mae": 11.2}, {"day": "2025-10-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 59.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 63.9, "brier": 0.1217, "rps": 0.0477, "own_mae": 26.7, "persist_price_mae": 25.6}, {"day": "2025-10-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 63.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 69.0, "brier": 0.0986, "rps": 0.0487, "own_mae": 26.5, "persist_price_mae": 25.1}, {"day": "2025-10-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 60.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 64.5, "brier": 0.1774, "rps": 0.0486, "own_mae": 22.2, "persist_price_mae": 25.7}, {"day": "2025-10-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 65.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 71.2, "brier": 0.1643, "rps": 0.0462, "own_mae": 23.5, "persist_price_mae": 29.3}, {"day": "2025-10-16", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 73.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 76.4, "brier": 0.1872, "rps": 0.0542, "own_mae": 21.5, "persist_price_mae": 29.3}, {"day": "2025-10-17", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 73.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 78.0, "brier": 0.1945, "rps": 0.0545, "own_mae": 14.1, "persist_price_mae": 12.9}, {"day": "2025-10-18", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 71.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 80.7, "brier": 0.1123, "rps": 0.051, "own_mae": 18.8, "persist_price_mae": 20.4}, {"day": "2025-10-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 85.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 92.8, "brier": 0.1328, "rps": 0.0665, "own_mae": 32.5, "persist_price_mae": 34.3}, {"day": "2025-10-20", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 95.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 97.9, "brier": 0.1346, "rps": 0.0715, "own_mae": 27.1, "persist_price_mae": 30.5}, {"day": "2025-10-21", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 78.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 77.4, "brier": 0.1426, "rps": 0.051, "own_mae": 26.3, "persist_price_mae": 32.4}, {"day": "2025-10-22", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 78.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 73.4, "brier": 0.1582, "rps": 0.0641, "own_mae": 30.5, "persist_price_mae": 30.3}, {"day": "2025-10-23", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 111.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 103.6, "brier": 0.208, "rps": 0.0843, "own_mae": 40.8, "persist_price_mae": 39.6}, {"day": "2025-10-24", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 64.0, "brier": 0.2143, "rps": 0.0549, "own_mae": 26.0, "persist_price_mae": 24.2}, {"day": "2025-10-25", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 92.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 86.5, "brier": 0.1686, "rps": 0.0691, "own_mae": 20.1, "persist_price_mae": 21.4}, {"day": "2025-10-26", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 74.4, "brier": 0.1187, "rps": 0.0582, "own_mae": 24.1, "persist_price_mae": 22.8}, {"day": "2025-10-27", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 73.9, "brier": 0.1494, "rps": 0.0711, "own_mae": 22.6, "persist_price_mae": 25.5}, {"day": "2025-10-28", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 66.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 64.7, "brier": 0.1602, "rps": 0.05, "own_mae": 23.1, "persist_price_mae": 25.1}, {"day": "2025-10-29", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 70.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 75.4, "brier": 0.1892, "rps": 0.0534, "own_mae": 26.9, "persist_price_mae": 35.6}, {"day": "2025-10-30", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 72.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 74.1, "brier": 0.1736, "rps": 0.0528, "own_mae": 23.8, "persist_price_mae": 21.8}, {"day": "2025-10-31", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 78.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 87.5, "brier": 0.1718, "rps": 0.0624, "own_mae": 16.6, "persist_price_mae": 16.5}, {"day": "2025-11-01", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 80.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 75.8, "brier": 0.1936, "rps": 0.0619, "own_mae": 24.4, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2025-11-02", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 95.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 110.1, "brier": 0.1205, "rps": 0.0714, "own_mae": 23.4, "persist_price_mae": 26.8}, {"day": "2025-11-03", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 80.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 87.3, "brier": 0.2009, "rps": 0.0653, "own_mae": 28.4, "persist_price_mae": 37.7}, {"day": "2025-11-04", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 75.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 76.2, "brier": 0.138, "rps": 0.0588, "own_mae": 24.5, "persist_price_mae": 25.9}, {"day": "2025-11-05", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 92.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 98.4, "brier": 0.132, "rps": 0.0624, "own_mae": 26.0, "persist_price_mae": 34.0}, {"day": "2025-11-06", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 80.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 81.1, "brier": 0.1389, "rps": 0.0609, "own_mae": 21.7, "persist_price_mae": 23.3}, {"day": "2025-11-07", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 76.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 84.4, "brier": 0.1484, "rps": 0.0577, "own_mae": 16.7, "persist_price_mae": 22.1}, {"day": "2025-11-08", "n": 32, "mae_mw": 49.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 39.2, "brier": 0.2823, "rps": 0.0576, "own_mae": 16.2, "persist_price_mae": 16.1}, {"day": "2025-11-09", "n": 0, "own_mae": 14.0, "persist_price_mae": 13.7}, {"day": "2025-11-10", "n": 0, "own_mae": 24.4, "persist_price_mae": 25.3}, {"day": "2025-11-11", "n": 0, "own_mae": 25.9, "persist_price_mae": 26.7}, {"day": "2025-11-12", "n": 1, "mae_mw": 104.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 0.0, "brier": 0.4186, "rps": 0.0854, "own_mae": 31.1, "persist_price_mae": 33.3}, {"day": "2025-11-13", "n": 0, "own_mae": 34.2, "persist_price_mae": 33.8}, {"day": "2025-11-14", "n": 48, "mae_mw": 58.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 59.6, "brier": 0.2291, "rps": 0.0549, "own_mae": 21.9, 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