{"from": "2026-09-16T03:30:00+00:00", "to": "2026-10-16T03:30:00+00:00", "lead_min": 14, "target": "systeemonbalans (MW) en onbalansprijs (EUR/MWh) per kwartier", "elia_si": {"n": 2857, "validated_share": 0.959, "point": {"mae_mw": 92.8, "rmse_mw": 122.62, "bias_mw": 6.59, "persistence": {"n": 2857, "mae_mw": 106.5, "rmse_mw": 141.71, "skill_mae": 0.1286, "skill_mse": 0.2512, "dm_abs": {"stat": -10.877, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -13.6992, "n": 2857, "hac_lag": 14}, "dm_sq": {"stat": -10.017, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -5044.3314, "n": 2857, "hac_lag": 14}}}, "classes": {"n": 2857, "rps": 0.06975, "rps_climatology": 0.10077, "rpss": 0.3078, "log_score": 1.0469, "log_score_climatology": 1.3556, "log_skill": 0.2277, "climatology": [0.0116, 0.104, 0.3616, 0.3794, 0.1253, 0.0182]}, "direction": {"brier": 0.16246, "reliability": 0.00252, "resolution": 0.09001, "uncertainty": 0.24947, "base_rate": 0.4771, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 497, "forecast": 0.037, "observed": 0.052}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 290, "forecast": 0.146, "observed": 0.231}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 266, "forecast": 0.249, "observed": 0.289}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 298, "forecast": 0.348, "observed": 0.315}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 315, "forecast": 0.449, "observed": 0.508}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 283, "forecast": 0.554, "observed": 0.622}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 207, "forecast": 0.645, "observed": 0.734}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 198, "forecast": 0.752, "observed": 0.768}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 190, "forecast": 0.85, "observed": 0.863}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 313, "forecast": 0.958, "observed": 0.942}], "brier_skill": 0.3488, "hint": {"p_up": 0.7, "p_down": 0.3, "coverage": 0.614, "hit_rate": 0.852, "n_calls": 1754}, "sign_hit_rate_point": 0.765}}, "traxes_ipf": {"n": 0}, "prices": {"models": {"eigen": {"n": 2878, "backtest_share": 0.853, "mae": 24.77, "pinball": 7.8, "interval_score": 129.52, "coverage": 0.788, "mean_width": 77.55, "skill_mae_vs_persistentie": 0.1355, "dm_vs_persistentie": {"stat": -6.824, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -3.883, "n": 2878, "hac_lag": 14}}, "persistentie": {"n": 2880, "mae": 28.82}}, "decision_vs_da": {"eigen": {"n": 2876, "hit_rate": 0.829, "value_eur_mwh": 36.65, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.39, "capture": 0.845, "brier": 0.1184}, "traxes": {"n": 0}, "elia": {"n": 2865, "hit_rate": 0.68, "value_eur_mwh": 24.27, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.28, "capture": 0.561, "brier": 0.2341}, "persistentie": {"n": 2878, "hit_rate": 0.819, "value_eur_mwh": 35.68, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.38, "capture": 0.823, "brier": null}}, "reliability_eigen": {"brier": 0.11843, "reliability": 0.00064, "resolution": 0.13082, "uncertainty": 0.24902, "base_rate": 0.4687, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 735, "forecast": 0.042, "observed": 0.03}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 234, "forecast": 0.152, "observed": 0.167}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 222, "forecast": 0.242, "observed": 0.212}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 158, "forecast": 0.35, "observed": 0.31}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 185, "forecast": 0.446, "observed": 0.492}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 218, "forecast": 0.55, "observed": 0.56}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 184, "forecast": 0.651, "observed": 0.696}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 182, "forecast": 0.755, "observed": 0.802}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 218, "forecast": 0.848, "observed": 0.835}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 540, "forecast": 0.959, "observed": 0.967}]}, "decision_common": {"n": 2866, "eigen": {"n": 2864, "hit_rate": 0.83, "value_eur_mwh": 36.55, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.29, "capture": 0.844, "brier": 0.1182}, "elia": {"n": 2864, "hit_rate": 0.68, "value_eur_mwh": 24.29, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.29, "capture": 0.561, "brier": 0.234}, "persistentie": {"n": 2864, "hit_rate": 0.821, "value_eur_mwh": 35.62, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.29, "capture": 0.823, "brier": null}}}, "notes": ["skill = 1 - score/baseline; > 0 = beter dan de baseline", "DM-test: stat < 0 = Elia beter dan persistentie; p < 0,05 = significant", "persistentie bij lead 1 min gebruikt het kwartier dat dan 14/15 bekend is (strenge baseline); klimatologie is in-sample", "eigen model: voor de live start zijn het walk-forward backtestvoorspellingen (maandelijks hertraind, nooit op toekomstige data)", "waarde vs DA: gem. teken*(onbalans-DA) per kwartier voor 1 MWh flex; capture = fractie van wat perfecte kennis oplevert"], "daily": [{"day": "2026-09-16", "n": 82, "mae_mw": 127.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 154.6, "brier": 0.0865, "rps": 0.0965, "own_mae": 28.3, "persist_price_mae": 39.9}, {"day": "2026-09-17", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 115.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 143.7, "brier": 0.0988, "rps": 0.0865, "own_mae": 24.2, "persist_price_mae": 28.4}, {"day": "2026-09-18", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 107.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 124.8, "brier": 0.1578, "rps": 0.0828, "own_mae": 20.8, "persist_price_mae": 26.5}, {"day": "2026-09-19", "n": 91, "mae_mw": 75.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 87.8, "brier": 0.1425, "rps": 0.0595, "own_mae": 13.7, "persist_price_mae": 13.6}, {"day": "2026-09-20", "n": 92, "mae_mw": 117.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 128.1, "brier": 0.1791, "rps": 0.094, "own_mae": 20.8, "persist_price_mae": 24.1}, {"day": "2026-09-21", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 75.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 83.8, "brier": 0.1669, "rps": 0.0589, "own_mae": 22.2, "persist_price_mae": 26.3}, {"day": "2026-09-22", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 83.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 101.5, "brier": 0.1536, "rps": 0.0601, "own_mae": 27.5, "persist_price_mae": 30.9}, {"day": "2026-09-23", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 113.2, "mae_persistence_mw": 129.9, "brier": 0.2028, "rps": 0.0846, "own_mae": 19.0, "persist_price_mae": 22.7}, {"day": "2026-09-24", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 77.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 84.6, "brier": 0.1665, "rps": 0.0626, "own_mae": 37.2, "persist_price_mae": 44.0}, {"day": "2026-09-25", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 94.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 99.7, "brier": 0.1492, "rps": 0.0744, "own_mae": 29.6, "persist_price_mae": 35.4}, {"day": "2026-09-26", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 93.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 109.6, "brier": 0.1725, "rps": 0.0714, "own_mae": 13.0, "persist_price_mae": 14.6}, {"day": "2026-09-27", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 99.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 100.0, "brier": 0.1444, "rps": 0.071, "own_mae": 28.8, "persist_price_mae": 36.3}, {"day": "2026-09-28", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 104.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 119.6, "brier": 0.1712, "rps": 0.0807, "own_mae": 19.9, "persist_price_mae": 22.4}, {"day": "2026-09-29", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 106.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 117.3, "brier": 0.1657, "rps": 0.0751, "own_mae": 37.4, "persist_price_mae": 39.2}, {"day": "2026-09-30", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 122.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 134.7, "brier": 0.1585, "rps": 0.0879, "own_mae": 20.9, "persist_price_mae": 22.6}, {"day": "2026-10-01", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 94.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 102.4, "brier": 0.1367, "rps": 0.0707, "own_mae": 17.4, "persist_price_mae": 19.2}, {"day": "2026-10-02", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 72.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 90.6, "brier": 0.1605, "rps": 0.05, "own_mae": 17.4, "persist_price_mae": 20.1}, {"day": "2026-10-03", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 58.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 70.5, "brier": 0.212, "rps": 0.0487, "own_mae": 18.0, "persist_price_mae": 19.6}, {"day": "2026-10-04", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 60.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.5, "brier": 0.1811, "rps": 0.0479, "own_mae": 16.0, "persist_price_mae": 17.6}, {"day": "2026-10-05", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 71.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.7, "brier": 0.1732, "rps": 0.0533, "own_mae": 17.6, "persist_price_mae": 20.3}, {"day": "2026-10-06", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 69.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 79.5, "brier": 0.1734, "rps": 0.0568, "own_mae": 25.1, "persist_price_mae": 26.4}, {"day": "2026-10-07", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 82.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 99.3, "brier": 0.1853, "rps": 0.065, "own_mae": 23.3, "persist_price_mae": 28.9}, {"day": "2026-10-08", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 94.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 108.2, "brier": 0.1681, "rps": 0.0741, "own_mae": 21.6, "persist_price_mae": 20.7}, {"day": "2026-10-09", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 104.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 125.8, "brier": 0.1018, "rps": 0.0679, "own_mae": 20.8, "persist_price_mae": 25.7}, {"day": "2026-10-10", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 81.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 97.7, "brier": 0.1965, "rps": 0.0595, "own_mae": 25.1, "persist_price_mae": 27.8}, {"day": "2026-10-11", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 97.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 114.8, "brier": 0.1783, "rps": 0.0744, "own_mae": 38.0, "persist_price_mae": 42.1}, {"day": "2026-10-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 111.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 119.4, "brier": 0.161, "rps": 0.0858, "own_mae": 35.3, "persist_price_mae": 41.1}, {"day": "2026-10-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 98.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 111.9, "brier": 0.1988, "rps": 0.0691, "own_mae": 31.4, "persist_price_mae": 38.0}, {"day": "2026-10-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 89.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 99.9, "brier": 0.205, "rps": 0.062, "own_mae": 28.8, "persist_price_mae": 35.4}, {"day": "2026-10-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 92.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 109.3, "brier": 0.1169, "rps": 0.0701, "own_mae": 46.5, "persist_price_mae": 53.4}, {"day": "2026-10-16", "n": 14, "mae_mw": 63.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 77.6, "brier": 0.1383, "rps": 0.0441, "own_mae": 15.4, "persist_price_mae": 19.1}]}