{"from": "2026-09-16T01:45:00+00:00", "to": "2026-10-16T01:45:00+00:00", "lead_min": 1, "target": "systeemonbalans (MW) en onbalansprijs (EUR/MWh) per kwartier", "elia_si": {"n": 2867, "validated_share": 0.961, "point": {"mae_mw": 72.05, "rmse_mw": 96.39, "bias_mw": 8.46, "persistence": {"n": 2867, "mae_mw": 78.54, "rmse_mw": 105.38, "skill_mae": 0.0826, "skill_mse": 0.1634, "dm_abs": {"stat": -8.028, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -6.4859, "n": 2867, "hac_lag": 14}, "dm_sq": {"stat": -6.747, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -1814.2902, "n": 2867, "hac_lag": 14}}}, "classes": {"n": 2867, "rps": 0.05372, "rps_climatology": 0.10066, "rpss": 0.4663, "log_score": 0.8451, "log_score_climatology": 1.3549, "log_skill": 0.3763, "climatology": [0.0119, 0.1029, 0.3607, 0.3812, 0.1252, 0.0181]}, "direction": {"brier": 0.12627, "reliability": 0.00291, "resolution": 0.12449, "uncertainty": 0.2494, "base_rate": 0.4754, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 746, "forecast": 0.026, "observed": 0.044}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 252, "forecast": 0.151, "observed": 0.19}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 207, "forecast": 0.25, "observed": 0.256}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 238, "forecast": 0.347, "observed": 0.387}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 216, "forecast": 0.449, "observed": 0.491}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 176, "forecast": 0.549, "observed": 0.665}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 184, "forecast": 0.649, "observed": 0.793}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 171, "forecast": 0.752, "observed": 0.813}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 165, "forecast": 0.853, "observed": 0.83}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 512, "forecast": 0.971, "observed": 0.961}], "brier_skill": 0.4937, "hint": {"p_up": 0.7, "p_down": 0.3, "coverage": 0.716, "hit_rate": 0.896, "n_calls": 2053}, "sign_hit_rate_point": 0.827}}, "traxes_ipf": {"n": 0}, "prices": {"models": {"eigen": {"n": 2878, "backtest_share": 0.855, "mae": 24.77, "pinball": 7.79, "interval_score": 129.32, "coverage": 0.788, "mean_width": 77.55, "skill_mae_vs_persistentie": 0.1359, "dm_vs_persistentie": {"stat": -6.838, "p_value": 0.0, "mean_loss_diff": -3.8938, "n": 2878, "hac_lag": 14}}, "persistentie": {"n": 2880, "mae": 28.83}}, "decision_vs_da": {"eigen": {"n": 2876, "hit_rate": 0.828, "value_eur_mwh": 36.62, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.37, "capture": 0.845, "brier": 0.1188}, "traxes": {"n": 0}, "elia": {"n": 2865, "hit_rate": 0.679, "value_eur_mwh": 24.22, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.26, "capture": 0.56, "brier": 0.2346}, "persistentie": {"n": 2878, "hit_rate": 0.818, "value_eur_mwh": 35.57, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.35, "capture": 0.821, "brier": null}}, "reliability_eigen": {"brier": 0.11878, "reliability": 0.00066, "resolution": 0.13054, "uncertainty": 0.24908, "base_rate": 0.4697, "diagram": [{"bin": "0.0-0.1", "n": 735, "forecast": 0.042, "observed": 0.03}, {"bin": "0.1-0.2", "n": 232, "forecast": 0.152, "observed": 0.168}, {"bin": "0.2-0.3", "n": 222, "forecast": 0.242, "observed": 0.221}, {"bin": "0.3-0.4", "n": 160, "forecast": 0.349, "observed": 0.306}, {"bin": "0.4-0.5", "n": 186, "forecast": 0.446, "observed": 0.495}, {"bin": "0.5-0.6", "n": 218, "forecast": 0.55, "observed": 0.56}, {"bin": "0.6-0.7", "n": 183, "forecast": 0.651, "observed": 0.699}, {"bin": "0.7-0.8", "n": 181, "forecast": 0.755, "observed": 0.801}, {"bin": "0.8-0.9", "n": 218, "forecast": 0.848, "observed": 0.835}, {"bin": "0.9-1.0", "n": 541, "forecast": 0.959, "observed": 0.967}]}, "decision_common": {"n": 2866, "eigen": {"n": 2864, "hit_rate": 0.829, "value_eur_mwh": 36.53, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.26, "capture": 0.844, "brier": 0.1185}, "elia": {"n": 2864, "hit_rate": 0.679, "value_eur_mwh": 24.24, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.26, "capture": 0.56, "brier": 0.2345}, "persistentie": {"n": 2864, "hit_rate": 0.819, "value_eur_mwh": 35.52, "perfect_eur_mwh": 43.26, "capture": 0.821, "brier": null}}}, "notes": ["skill = 1 - score/baseline; > 0 = beter dan de baseline", "DM-test: stat < 0 = Elia beter dan persistentie; p < 0,05 = significant", "persistentie bij lead 1 min gebruikt het kwartier dat dan 14/15 bekend is (strenge baseline); klimatologie is in-sample", "eigen model: voor de live start zijn het walk-forward backtestvoorspellingen (maandelijks hertraind, nooit op toekomstige data)", "waarde vs DA: gem. teken*(onbalans-DA) per kwartier voor 1 MWh flex; capture = fractie van wat perfecte kennis oplevert"], "daily": [{"day": "2026-09-16", "n": 88, "mae_mw": 85.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 102.0, "brier": 0.0634, "rps": 0.0621, "own_mae": 27.8, "persist_price_mae": 39.6}, {"day": "2026-09-17", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 102.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 114.4, "brier": 0.0795, "rps": 0.0734, "own_mae": 24.2, "persist_price_mae": 28.4}, {"day": "2026-09-18", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 96.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 105.8, "brier": 0.1408, "rps": 0.0745, "own_mae": 20.8, "persist_price_mae": 26.5}, {"day": "2026-09-19", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 67.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 70.6, "brier": 0.122, "rps": 0.0512, "own_mae": 13.7, "persist_price_mae": 13.6}, {"day": "2026-09-20", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 82.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 88.5, "brier": 0.1179, "rps": 0.0641, "own_mae": 20.8, "persist_price_mae": 24.1}, {"day": "2026-09-21", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 56.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 61.7, "brier": 0.125, "rps": 0.0429, "own_mae": 22.2, "persist_price_mae": 26.3}, {"day": "2026-09-22", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 66.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.0, "brier": 0.1181, "rps": 0.045, "own_mae": 27.5, "persist_price_mae": 30.9}, {"day": "2026-09-23", "n": 93, "mae_mw": 79.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 93.8, "brier": 0.164, "rps": 0.0649, "own_mae": 19.0, "persist_price_mae": 22.7}, {"day": "2026-09-24", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 61.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 61.7, "brier": 0.1355, "rps": 0.0484, "own_mae": 37.2, "persist_price_mae": 44.0}, {"day": "2026-09-25", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 68.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 73.4, "brier": 0.1065, "rps": 0.053, "own_mae": 29.6, "persist_price_mae": 35.4}, {"day": "2026-09-26", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 68.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 78.6, "brier": 0.1291, "rps": 0.0532, "own_mae": 13.0, "persist_price_mae": 14.6}, {"day": "2026-09-27", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 73.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 71.8, "brier": 0.0882, "rps": 0.0506, "own_mae": 28.8, "persist_price_mae": 36.3}, {"day": "2026-09-28", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 70.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 77.0, "brier": 0.1122, "rps": 0.0529, "own_mae": 19.9, "persist_price_mae": 22.4}, {"day": "2026-09-29", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 82.5, "brier": 0.137, "rps": 0.0608, "own_mae": 37.4, "persist_price_mae": 39.2}, {"day": "2026-09-30", "n": 95, "mae_mw": 87.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 85.0, "brier": 0.1231, "rps": 0.0664, "own_mae": 20.9, "persist_price_mae": 22.6}, {"day": "2026-10-01", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 73.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 78.6, "brier": 0.1024, "rps": 0.0509, "own_mae": 17.4, "persist_price_mae": 19.2}, {"day": "2026-10-02", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 64.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.2, "brier": 0.1651, "rps": 0.051, "own_mae": 17.4, "persist_price_mae": 20.1}, {"day": "2026-10-03", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 45.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 55.0, "brier": 0.1676, "rps": 0.0385, "own_mae": 18.0, "persist_price_mae": 19.6}, {"day": "2026-10-04", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 54.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 56.7, "brier": 0.1565, "rps": 0.0414, "own_mae": 16.0, "persist_price_mae": 17.6}, {"day": "2026-10-05", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 56.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 70.7, "brier": 0.1574, "rps": 0.0466, "own_mae": 17.6, "persist_price_mae": 20.3}, {"day": "2026-10-06", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 65.7, "mae_persistence_mw": 71.7, "brier": 0.1326, "rps": 0.0471, "own_mae": 25.1, "persist_price_mae": 26.4}, {"day": "2026-10-07", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 68.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 74.6, "brier": 0.161, "rps": 0.0546, "own_mae": 23.3, "persist_price_mae": 28.9}, {"day": "2026-10-08", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.6, "mae_persistence_mw": 79.2, "brier": 0.1153, "rps": 0.0572, "own_mae": 21.6, "persist_price_mae": 20.7}, {"day": "2026-10-09", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 78.1, "mae_persistence_mw": 92.1, "brier": 0.0666, "rps": 0.047, "own_mae": 20.8, "persist_price_mae": 25.7}, {"day": "2026-10-10", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 64.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 72.1, "brier": 0.1423, "rps": 0.0465, "own_mae": 25.1, "persist_price_mae": 27.8}, {"day": "2026-10-11", "n": 94, "mae_mw": 71.9, "mae_persistence_mw": 77.7, "brier": 0.1476, "rps": 0.0565, "own_mae": 38.0, "persist_price_mae": 42.1}, {"day": "2026-10-12", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 79.0, "mae_persistence_mw": 82.9, "brier": 0.0922, "rps": 0.0542, "own_mae": 35.3, "persist_price_mae": 41.1}, {"day": "2026-10-13", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 72.8, "mae_persistence_mw": 79.8, "brier": 0.1554, "rps": 0.0554, "own_mae": 31.4, "persist_price_mae": 38.0}, {"day": "2026-10-14", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 76.3, "mae_persistence_mw": 79.7, "brier": 0.1677, "rps": 0.0506, "own_mae": 28.8, "persist_price_mae": 35.4}, {"day": "2026-10-15", "n": 96, "mae_mw": 74.5, "mae_persistence_mw": 80.0, "brier": 0.0896, "rps": 0.0537, "own_mae": 46.5, "persist_price_mae": 53.4}, {"day": "2026-10-16", "n": 7, "mae_mw": 42.4, "mae_persistence_mw": 47.0, "brier": 0.1634, "rps": 0.033, "own_mae": 6.8, "persist_price_mae": 4.9}]}